This is going to be an interesting year! At $200,000 per LFS&N (Live Foal Stands and Nurses) American Pharoah is the most expensive untested sire I ever remember. His papa, Pioneerof the Nile has been raised from $60,000 to $125,000 mostly on the results of American Pharoah on the track. Also, his paternal grandpa, Empire Maker has been returned from Japan where he stood as a rather mediocre sire, to stand for $100,000.
A good alternative from almost any standpoint to stay “in the family” is another son of Pioneerof the Nile. And that son is Cairo Prince. He was the early favorite for the Derby in the same crop as California Chrome but was injured in the Florida Derby which ended his racing career.
That in itself should mean very little these days as good horses are far more likely to be retired to stud as opposed to being patched up and raced again. Pioneerof the Nile was retired shortly after the Kentucky Derby where he finished second to a miracle late closing by Mine that Bird.
At $15,000 LFS&N, Cairo Prince might not only be the best buy in the family, he might just be the best buy in the world. His yearlings are selling extremely well. He will be a “first crop sire” in 2016, so this may be the last time he is a bargain if my predictions for him turn out positive.
An additional reason I like him is his much better pedigree on his dam’s side. His dam is by 1994 Horse of the Year, Holy Bull whereas American Pharoah’s dam is by a very unremarkable sire, Yankee Gentleman, who, other than being damsire of American Pharoah, is a total unknown. He wasn’t even a graded stakes winner.
Neither dam was much of a runner but that in itself is not so important as their family. Both have fairly strong female families, but neither is exceptional.
The most amazing young sire in recent memory, if not ever, is current first crop sire Uncle Mo. While it remains to be seen whether his 2 year olds will continue to progress, his domination over the other first crop sires is almost unbelievable. His first crop has won over $3,600,000 to date whereas second place is held by Twirling Candy at less than $1,100,000. Even more amazing is that in spite being a first crop sire, Uncle Mo is the leading sire of two year olds in the world – and I mean THE leader over all sires of all levels, not just first crop. He will stand in 2016 for $75,000, up from $40,000 in 2015. Even at $75,000, he is in my top five for 2016.
Another amazing young sire is Munnings, a second crop sire that is dominating among his class. While he only has a slightly better than 10% lead over # 2 Super Saver, he is standing for $25,000 in 2016 versus $65,000 for Super Saver.
Another of my favorites is Curlin. At $100,000 he will be pricey but based on his age (standing only one year longer than Pioneerof the Nile) he is # 6 on the generl sire list (all sires standing in North America) and he is clearly the younges aside from Pioneerof the Nile, who is # 3. However, take away both of their best single runners and Curlin has well over twice the progeny earnings of Pioneerof the Nile.
Lastly in my top five is Candy Ride, # 4 on the general sire list. He will stand in 2016 for $60,000 which is less than any above except Cairo Prince. Had his best runner, Share Belief, had the year expected, he would likely have been # 2 on the general sire list.
So, to rank these five:
# 1 Cairo Prince
# 2 Candy Ride
# 3 Munnings
# 4 Uncle Mo
# 5 Curlin
Beyond these, I still like Quality Road and Midnight Lute, as well as Sky Mesa. Another young sire that just isn’t getting the attention he deserves is General Quarters. At the bottom end of the market, there are still some good buys including Lion Tamer, Bluegrass Cat and Lucky Pulpit.
There are some good young sons of AP Indy that also deserve attention if you have a mare with Mr. Prospector and/or both Mr P and Northern Dancer, these can be a great choice. Sons of AP Indy’s son Pulpit are certainly hot as my list includes both Sky Mesa and his son General Quarters as well as Lucky Pulpit. Don’t forget that Pulpit’s son Tapit is the runaway # 1 on the general sire list this year as well as last year. At $300,000 he is clearly America’s most expensive sire.
Other young sires worth a look if you have the right mare to match up are Colonel John, Majesticperfection, Blame and Lookin’ at Lucky. All are reasonably priced and have good performers.
There are a lot of other good sires out there but anyone can find a good one on my list as, other than the heavy concentration on Pulpit’s progeny, there is a great cross-section here to match up to any mare! And I am truly not favoring any line in my choices. If I were, there would be a lot more grandsons of Mr. Prospector on this list. His tail male line accounts for about half the US high-end market but only about a third of the horses I have listed. His offspring include over 75% of the Classic race winners in this century including American Pharoah, Empire Maker and Curlin among the horses mentioned above.
Please note that nothing in this article is meant to take away from Pioneerof the Nile. He is a great sire and is likely to get to the top or near the top of future general sire list. I jus think, compared to the others on my list, he is overpriced at $125,000. American Pharoah, on the other hand, is simply ridiculously priced for an unproven sire. There is simply nothing to justify such a fee.
Looking at past Triple Crown winners, few, if any, proved to be great sires. Seattle Slew, who was much maligned for poor conformation and sold as a yearling for $17,000 was the best of the bunch and he is represented in the top level of racing today only by offspring of one son, AP Indy. No other Triple Crown winner has a remaining sire line of any importance whatsoever. The next most important sires were Secretariat and War Admiral as broodmare sires. Count Fleet survives in the pedigree of Mr. Prospector’s extensive family. For the entire breed, that just about covers it. There are still a couple of important instances of Affirmed’s daughters and perhaps a smattering of some others.
Man ‘o War, who did not win the Triple Crown as he did not run in the Derby, and ONLY because he did not run as he would have easily won it, shows up more than any except Seattle Slew. He still has a small tail male family through Tiznow and Tizbud, the recently deceased Bertrando and another smaller line, all descending from his great grandson, In Reality. He is also in the pedigree of Mr. Prospector.
My Scribbles!! 